Reprographics 101

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  • Autodesk Earnings Rise, Top Estimate

    (RTTNews.com) – Design software maker Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) said Thursday after the markets closed that its fourth quarter profit rose 17% from last year, as demand for suites, AutoCAD, and AutoCAD LT products led to strong revenue growth across all of its geographies.

    The company’s quarterly earnings per share, excluding items, also came in above analysts’ expectations as did its quarterly revenue.

    At the same time, the San Rafael, California-based company forecast first quarter revenue and earnings in line with analysts’ current expectations.

    “Our strong fourth quarter performance capped a terrific year for Autodesk,” said Carl Bass, Autodesk president and CEO.

    Autodesk shares are currently losing 0.52% in after hours trading after closing the day’s regular trading session at $38.20, up 44 cents or 1.17%. The shares trade in a 52-week range of $22.99 to $46.15.

    Fourth quarter revenue from the Americas rose 17% to a record $226 million, while revenue from EMEA grew 10% to $234 million and revenue from Asia Pacific increased 9% to $133 million. Revenue from emerging economies surged 12% to $95 million and represented 16% of total revenue in the fourth quarter.

    Revenue from the company’s Platform Solutions and Emerging Business increased 18% from a year earlier, while revenue from its Architecture, Engineering and Construction business grew 8% from last year.

    For the fourth quarter, Autodesk reported net income for the fourth quarter of $72.0 million or $0.31 per share, compared to $61.6 million or $0.26 per share for the year-ago quarter.

    Excluding items, adjusted net income for the fourth quarter rose to $106.1 million or $0.46 per share from $82.7 million or $0.35 per share in the prior year quarter.

    On average, 19 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected the company to earn $0.45 per share for the fourth quarter.

    Operating margin for the quarter improved to 15% from 14% a year ago, while adjusted operating margin increased to 24% from 20% last year.

    Revenue for the fourth quarter rose 12% to $592.4 million from $527.7 million in the same quarter last year. Seventeen analysts had a consensus revenue estimate of $583.92 million for the fourth quarter.

    Looking forward to the first quarter, the company forecast revenue of $575 million to $590 million, earnings of $0.29 to $0.31 per share and adjusted earnings of $0.46 to $0.48 per share. Analysts currently expect the company to earn $0.47 per share on revenue of $582.91 million for the first quarter.

    For the current fiscal year ending in January 2013, the company expects revenue to increase at least 10% compared to previous fiscal year, implying fiscal 2013 revenue of at least $2.44 billion. Analysts currently expect the company to post fiscal 2013 revenue of $2.43 billion.

  • IRgA Networking Reception at the ISA Expo – March 22, 2012


    When

    3/22/2012

    From 4:30 PM until 6::00 PM

    Where


    Orange County Convention Center

    Orlando, FL

    United States

    REGISTRATION INFORMATION

    Online registration is available until: 3/22/2012

    To register, go to IRGA.com

  • NAPL and PIA working on plans to merge

    Not surprisingly, NAPL and PIA are working on plans to merge.

    Quite frankly, I don’t know why there are two different associations for commercial printers anyway; to me, this has been a redundant situation for years.

    Letter to National Association of Printers & Lithographers members:

    February 23, 2012

    Dear Valued NAPL Member

    Attached you will find a copy of information relating to NAPL that is being released to the press today. (Click here to view attachment.) I am writing to you this morning because I wanted to let our members know about it prior to its general release.

    In response to requests from many company and associate members, NAPLʼs leadership entered into discussions with the leadership of Printing Industries of America about the possible unification of the associations into a single entity that would best serve the interests of all our members and our industry.

    The groups came together over the last few days at the Vision 3 Summit and agreed to explore this association unification. This process is complex, and will take place over a number of months, but throughout, our primary concern will be to ensure that our members derive maximum benefit from any change or consolidation.

    I respectfully ask that you continue your support of NAPL during the coming months. Our staff and volunteers will continue to provide you with all of our NAPL programs and services, and I hope that you will continue to make full use of all your member benefits.

    As we move forward with this effort, I will keep you informed at each step along the way, and I welcome any comments or suggestions you might have about how we can make these changes work best for you.

    Sincerely,

    Joseph P. Truncale, Ph.D.

    NAPL President & Chief Executive Officer

    (800) 642-6275, Ext. 6310

    Letter to Printing Industry of America members:

    February 23, 2012

    At a meeting held prior to the Vision 3 Summit a group of industry leaders convened to explore opportunities to unify NAPL and Printing Industries of America.

    This action was taken for several reasons: the economic conditions of the past several years, the ongoing contraction of the industry and a response to calls for action from membership and suppliers. After a full day of very productive and open discussions, the group was able to reach unanimous consensus to move forward with a plan and process to address the above issues which will greatly benefit members of the groups as well as the industry in general.

    A special task force has been formed consisting of representatives from both NAPL and Printing Industries of America which will collaborate and move forward with a unification process. The boards of each organization have passed resolutions supporting the process and empowering the task force to take the steps to create a new single entity. NAPL CEO Joe Truncale and I have each expressed our full support of these efforts.

    The unification process is expected to take several months to reach completion. Members of each Association are encouraged to continue to support their respective Associations.

    The task force will develop a number of sub-committees to address key areas such as: strategic plan; name of the organization; staffing and leadership; local representation; programs; and location. These steps will take place over the next several months along with due diligence and legal work.

    The task force is being co-chaired by Laura Lawton and Darren Loken, who are the current chairs of Printing Industries of America and NAPL respectively.

    The other members of the task force are:

    John Berthelsen, Suttle-Straus, Inc. Tim Burton, Burton & Mayer, Inc. Keith Kemp, Xerographic Digital Printing Michael Makin, Printing Industries of America Joe Truncale, NAPL, Jules VanSant, Pacific Printing Industries Niels Winther, Think Patented Nigel Worme, COT Media Group

    For further information, please contact Darren Loken at (253) 246-0453 or Laura Lawton at (509) 534-1044. Sincerely,

    Michael Makin President & CEO Printing Industries of America

  • Recent Articles related to the Housing Market and Homebuilders

    There are two different articles below in this post.

    What Home Depot’s Earnings Really Tell Us About the U.S. Housing Market

    By Sasha Cekerevac, Feb 22, 2012 (from wallstreetpit.com)

    When looking at homebuilder stocks, you can look at two basic segments to gauge the housing market: the companies that build the homes directly, such as Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL), and those firms that sell the supplies, such as The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW).

    Home Depot just came out with earnings that beat the estimates of Wall Street handily and pushed the shares up even higher. Sales were up 5.9% for the fourth quarter in 2011 compared to the same period 2010. Net earnings were $774 million in the fourth quarter 2011 versus $587 million in the same period 2010. For the entire year 2011, sales were at $70.4 billion, up 3.5% from 2010.

    The homebuilder stocks’ selling supplies have far exceeded the S&P 500 over the last three months. Home Depot is up approximately 24% over that time period, and Lowe’s up 18%, while the S&P 500 is only up 12%.

    Does this mean that the housing market is about to boom? Not necessarily.

    Home Depot cited the extremely warm weather as part of the reason for the increase in sales. This being one of the warmest winters on record has improved traffic and sales of early spring equipment, which offset the decline in snow removal gear. While the warm winter might have helped the sale of plants, this doesn’t mean the housing market is fixed.

    What else is helping homebuilder stocks that sell supplies is the increase in foreclosures and conversion to rental properties. The housing market is now becoming more of a rental market. This means buyers of foreclosed properties need to renovate and this benefits homebuilder stocks that sell supplies, such as Home Depot and Lowe’s.

    The other portion of the housing market consists of people who are stuck in their homes and can’t sell because the price has fallen too far, but they’re not underwater, so they’re not walking away from their homes. These people are turning to homebuilder stocks that sell supplies like Home Depot to buy upgrades. Since they can’t move, they might as well spruce up their homes with new plants, energy-efficient furnaces and other small-to-medium purchases.

    Home Depot’s guidance for 2012 expects an estimated sales growth of four percent, 11 new stores, operating margin expansion of approximately 50 basis points, and share repurchases totaling $3.5 billion.

    While these are great earnings numbers, we can’t judge the entire housing market based on the homebuilder stocks that sell supplies. We need to see the level of foreclosed homes come down for the housing market to gain some price improvement. With the housing market still expecting some price declines, it will be difficult for confidence to build up. The housing market needs prices to move up. Once we see prices increasing across the country, we can then say that the housing market is becoming “normal” once again. Until foreclosure levels come down, I’d be wary of the housing market bouncing back anytime soon.

    Toll’s Order Woes Acting As Sector Reminder (TOL, DHI, KBH, PHM)

    Posted: February 22, 2012 at 12:56 pm (from 247wallst.com)

    Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is softening after its net loss rather than a small gain expected. There is more to this than just an earnings story. What is really the driving force is two equally concerning issues. The first is that homebuilder stocks were already pricing in a huge recovery. The second is that orders being up just under 20% actually failed to meet what many were hoping for.

    In the price scenario, Toll’s shares are down over 5% at $22.40 but the 52-week trading range is $13.16 to $24.22. Rival builder D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) is down only about 1% at $13.81 but the 52-week range is $8.03 to $14.79. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) is down 5.5% at $11.11 but it has a 52-week range of $5.02 to $13.90. PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is down 2.7% at $8.35 against a 52-week range of $3.29 to $9.31. As you can see, these are all up 50% to 100% from the lows of last year.

    Having an order gain of 19%, even if the dollar gains in contract dollars was up 40%, is just not good enough right now. Not after the run we have seen. Our understanding is that orders needed to be up 25% or even 30%. Existing home sales are now thinning out as far as competition as the National Association of Realtors showed an existing housing supply of about 6.1 months. That is the lowest reading in years now.

  • Contest to GUESS ARC’S Year 2011 SALES REVENUES – CONTEST WINNER ANNOUNCEMENT

    The winner of the contest was Mr. Kevin Cully, one of the owners of AIR Graphics, Boston, MA.

    Kevin’s guess was $421.5 million. ARC’s sales for full-year 2011 were reported, yesterday, at $422.73 mil.

    Congratulations to Kevin.

    When we announced the contest, we said this:

    Prize: $100

    If you win the contest, please note:

    · ½ of your prize will be donated, directly by me in your name, to your favorite charity. (No “religious charities, please!)

    · The other ½ of your prize will be in the form of a check, issued by me to you.

    When I contacted Kevin to congratulate him and to ask him about the donation to be made, Kevin told me to donate the entire $100 prize to the Susan G. Komen For the Cure (of Breast Cancer.) What a great guy Kevin is.

    I’ve already made the donation:

    February 22, 2012

    Mr. Joel Salus 


    Saint Petersburg, FL 33704

    Dear Mr. Salus,

    Thank you so much for your generous contribution of $100.00 to Susan G. Komen for the Cure®. Your support is hard at work bringing us closer to our promise of saving lives and ending breast cancer forever by empowering people, ensuring quality care for all and energizing science to find the cures.

    With nearly $1.5 billion invested to date, we are the world’s single largest source of nonprofit funds dedicated to confronting breast cancer at every stage. In fact, since we started in 1982, practically every advance in the fight against breast cancer has been touched in some way by a Susan G. Komen for the Cure grant.

    With friends like you, along with survivors, activists, and supporters in more than 120 U.S. locations and a growing number of international cities and countries, we are literally making an impact and helping save millions of lives around the world.

    Again thank you for your generous donation and for your commitment to our steadfast promise to end breast cancer.

    Sincerely,

    Amb. Nancy G. Brinker
Founder and Chief Executive Officer

  • Grubb and Ellis Co. assets sold in Chapter 11 bankruptcy

    Blog Publisher’s comment:

    Until I saw this article, I had no idea that Grubb & Ellis was going down for the count. (It’s hard to stay up with everything that’s been going on during the recession that’s rocked the real estate industry in the U.S.) A once venerable firm, a pillar of the real estate industry, Grubb & Ellis’ assets to be sold in a fire sale. Note that in 2007 – as mentioned in the article below – NNN Realty Advisors (of Santa Ana, CA) paid $725 million for the stock of Grubb & Ellis! Wow, that was certainly a big chunk of change – and, what’s that investment worth now?

    “Grubb & Ellis Co. assets sold in Chapter 11 bankruptcy”

    By Roger Vincent (L.A. Times)

    February 21, 2012, 12:34 p.m.

    Venerable commercial real estate brokerage Grubb & Ellis Co. will sell its assets to the parent company of rival Newmark Knight Frank as part of a prepackaged bankruptcy, the firms said Tuesday.

    BGC Partners Inc., a New York financial services firm that acquired Newmark Knight Frank in October, agreed to buy essentially all the assets of Santa Ana-based Grubb & Ellis for an undisclosed price.

    Grubb & Ellis will conduct its asset sale under Section 363 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and has commenced Chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

    BGC said it will provide financing to support the company’s operation during the sale process, which must be approved by a federal judge.

    The firms did not reveal whether the Grubb & Ellis name would survive the takeover. The company’s yellow and black signs are a common sight on offices, warehouses and other commercial buildings available for sale or lease.

    Grubb & Ellis was formed in Oakland in 1958 by Bill Grubb and Hal Ellis, and grew into what was once the largest independently owned, publicly traded real estate firm in the United States. It borrowed heavily to expand, however, and had trouble turning a profit after the real estate industry crashed in the early 1990s.

    The company was acquired in 2007 by NNN Realty Advisors Inc., a privately held real estate services and management company in Santa Ana. NNN kept the Grubb & Ellis brand after the stock-only transaction valued at $725 million.

    In recent years, the recession and real estate crash further stressed the company. In its bankruptcy filing, Grubb & Ellis listed $150 million in assets and $167 million in debt at the end of last year.

    “Following a thorough and rigorous process and the evaluation of all available options, we determined that a partnership with BGC provides the best platform for our brokerage professionals, employees and clients,” said Thomas P. D’Arcy, chief executive of Grubb & Ellis.

    “We believe the transaction will be seamless for our clients and we expect no disruption to the company’s operations. Furthermore, we believe our professionals and clients will benefit greatly by being part of the BGC organization, which, with its recent acquisition of Newmark Knight Frank, will bring together two strong brands to create a powerhouse in the commercial real estate space.”

  • Oppenheimer Maintains Perform on American Reprographics

    By David Johnson

    Benzinga Staff Writer

    February 22, 2012 7:36 AM

    Oppenheimer reiterates its Perform rating on American Reprographics (NYSE: ARC) following an in-line quarterly performance cautious outlook for 2012.

    Oppenheimer notes, “ARC delivered adjusted 4Q11 EPS of $0.00 vs. our est/consensus/4Q10/3Q11 of $0.00/$0.04/-$0.03/$0.02. Reported EPS was -$0.07 on one-time items. Revenue of $102M topped our est/consensus of $99M/$101M. We’re reducing our 2012-13E EPS to $0.07/$0.14 from $0.08/$0.16, respectively, on an outlook that the top line does very little beyond net stabilizing over the coming few quarters given low visibility into ARC’s key non-residential construction markets. This stems largely from ARC’s cautious 2012 EPS guidance of $0.05-0.10, versus consensus of $0.22E.”

    ARC closed at $6.52 a share on Tuesday (February 21st)

    Blog Publisher’s note:

    ARC trading, just after the opening bell, this morning, Feb 22nd:

    Symbol

    ARC

    Last

    6.24

    Change

    -0.28

    Bid

    6.22

    Ask

    6.29

    High

    6.38

    Low

    6.20

    Volume

    5,723

    Time (ET)

    9:32:41 AM

  • AIA ABI Index for January 2012 continues to indicate recovery !!!

    Architecture Billings Index Remains Positive for Third Straight Month


    West region continues to lag behind rest of country in demand for design services

    For immediate release from the AIA

    
Washington, D.C. – February 22, 2012 – On the heels of consecutive months of strengthening business conditions, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has now reached positive territory three months in a row.

    As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending.

    The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI score was 50.9, following a mark of 51.0* in December. This score reflects a slight increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). *Every January the AIA research department updates the seasonal factors used to calculate the ABI, resulting in a revision of recent ABI values.

    The new projects inquiry index was 61.2, down just a notch from a reading of 61.5 the previous month. 



    “Even though we had a similar upturn in design billings in late 2010 and early 2011, this recent showing is encouraging because it is being reflected across most regions of the country and across the major construction sectors,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But because we still continue to hear about struggling firms and some continued uncertainly in the market, we expect that overall economic improvements in the design and construction sector to be modest in the coming months.”


    Key January ABI highlights:

    -Regional averages: Midwest (53.7), South (51.6), Northeast (50.7), West (45.6)

    -Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (52.6), commercial / industrial (52.2), institutional (51.1), mixed practice (46.1)

    -Project inquiries index: 61.2

    The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.

    About the AIA Architecture Billings Index


    The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA web site.

    Contact: Scott Frank

    
202-626-7467

    
sfrank@aia.org

    Current and previous recent AIA ABI Index readings:

    50.9 – January 2012

    51.0 – December 2011 (originally reported at 52.0, later adjusted down to 51.0)

    52.0 – November 2011

    49.4 – October 2011

    46.9 – September 2011

    51.4 – August 2011

    45.1 – July 2011

    46.3 – June 2011

    47.2 – May 2011

    47.6 – April 2011

    50.5 – March 2011

    50.6 – February 2011

    50.0 – January 2011

    54.2 – December 2010

    52.0 – November 2010

    48.7 – October 2010

    50.4 – September 2010

  • CONTEST RESULTS

    TAH-DAH!

    As to the Reprographics 101 Blog Contest to “Guess ARC’s Full Year 2011 Sales”, ARC’s full-year 2011 Sales came in at $422.73 mil.

    These were the only “guesses” we received, and the guess that I’ve put in large font size (in blue) is the guess that won the contest.

    $464.88

    $437.00

    Winning entry $421.50

    $421.00

    $420.93

    I will contact the contest winner, within the next couple of days, to arrange for the prize and to determine if the contest winner wishes to remain anonymous, or not. (We will only announce the name of the winner if the winner gives us permission to post his/her name.)

  • ARC Reports Q4 2011 and Full-Year 2011 Results

    Okay, this afternoon, after the close of the stock market, ARC reported its results for Q4 2011 and for the full-year 2011.

    You can access ARC’s earnings release at this link:

    http://tinyurl.com/7mcz4bz

    If you visit seekingalpha.com tomorrow morning – and enter the letters, ARC – you’ll be able to access a copy of the transcript of the “earnings call” that ARC held this afternoon. (Or, you can listen to a replay of the earnings call, if you were unable to listen in on the live call today. I find earnings calls to be interesting, for they allow you to listen to management speak about results and listen to analysts ask questions (some analysts ask “clueless” questions, and I find that amusing.)

    For Q4 2011. ARC’s Q4 Sales came in at $101.846 mil (considering market conditions, not bad, and higher than what analyst were expecting.)

    This table reflects ARC’s quarterly and annual sales for the years 2008 through 2011:

    Sales

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    millions

    millions

    millions

    millions

    Q1

    $187.44

    $139.48

    $112.16

    $106.50

    Q2

    $184.94

    $131.05

    $115.09

    $109.59

    Q3

    $174.59

    $119.35

    $109.42

    $104.79

    Q4

    $154.02

    $111.66

    $104.97

    $101.85

    -Full Year

    $700.99

    $501.55

    $441.64

    $422.73

    This table reflects the change in ARC’s sales, a) on a year-over-year basis and b) on a cumulative basis; (2009 vs. 2008, 2010 vs. 2008, 2011 vs. 2008, respectively):

    change: year-over-year

    -28.45%

    -11.94%

    -4.28%

    change: cumulative

    -28.45%

    -37.00%

    -39.70%

    Okay, now let’s take a look at ARC’s 2011 results compared to the 2011 results expected by Reprographers, according to a survey we completed in January 2012.

    I need to mention that some Reprographers realized “peak” sales in 2007, while others (including ARC) realized “peak” sales in 2008.

    In our recent survey of Reprographers, completed in January 2011, we asked Reprographers to compare their 2007 sales with their expected 2011 sales results, and the table below reflects the responses we received. As you can see, 25 out of 43 Reprographers (58% of survey participants) indicated that their 2011 sales were expected to come in at 30 to 50+% less than their 2007 sales. ARC’s cumulative sales decline, 2008 to 2011, at around 40%, falls almost right smack in the middle of that.

    Regarding total sales, 2011 vs. 2007, please complete this statement: We expect that our total sales for 2011 will be:

    Answer Options

    Response Percent

    Response Count

    50% or more lower

    18.6%

    8

    40 to 49% lower

    18.6%

    8

    30 to 39% lower

    20.9%

    9

    20 to 29% lower

    9.3%

    4

    10 to 19% lower

    4.7%

    2

    1 to 9% lower

    0.0%

    0

    About the same

    7.0%

    3

    1 to 9% higher

    2.3%

    1

    10 to 19% higher

    7.0%

    3

    20 to 29% higher

    7.0%

    3

    30 to 39% higher

    0.0%

    0

    40 to 49% higher

    2.3%

    1

    50% or more higher

    2.3%

    1

    answered question

    43

    skipped question

    0

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    Blog Publisher’s further comments:

    As one of the tables shows, 2009 was a disastrous year for Reprographers; I hope our industry never-ever-again has a year like that one!

    Since 2008, ARC’s sales have declined every year, both on a quarterly basis and on an annual basis. However, the pace of decline has slowed down, and, I for one, am predicting that ARC’s 2012 sales will show an increase (over year 2011) rather than a continued decline. That’s not just my prediction for ARC, but for all Reprographers, meaning for the industry “as a whole.” Inasmuch as I still have many friends who own reprographics companies, I surely hope my prediction comes true!

    Because of the ‘Great Recession’s” impact on the A/E/C Industry and, thusly, on the Reprographics Industry, most Reprographers have pushed hard into services that are purchased by businesses outside of the A/E/C Industry; one of those services, for example, is “large-format display graphics color”. While there’s lots of competition for that type of work, Reprographers are making headway with their large-format display graphics businesses – Reprographers are very experienced at dealing with “large” documents, both printing and finishing. Some Reprographers, including ARC, have pushed into the “managed-print-services” (MPS) business, beyond A/E/C. Some will have success with their MPS initiatives, but others might end up having little or no success; MPS requires financial resources that some Reprographers simply do not have, and MPS requires people who know how to complete in-depth analyses and proposals; not all Reprographers have team members experienced with that. Some Reprographers will not even attempt to push into the MPS business. On the A/E/C front, quite a number of A/E/C Industry customers, General Contractors (GC’s) in particular, have found ways to print less (fewer sets of plan and spec documents) “per project”. That was not just driven by cost, it was also driven by technology developments that, today, make it easier for A/E/C project participants to distribute electronic files, rather than printing everything that they used to print. However, as the A/E/C Industry recovers – and, at some point, rest assured that there will be a very robust A/E/C Industry recovery – it may well be that A/E/C customers may resume printing (per project) as much as they used to print in the past. We really don’t know, yet, how that’s going to play out.

    For all that managed to make it to the end of this post, thanks for reading it, and I hope you have a great 2012.